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Prediction for CME (2023-02-11T11:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-02-11T11:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/23709/-1
CME Note: The CME visible N/NE in SOHO LASCO C2, C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. There is a more clear bulk portion that shows filamentary structures within it and then a more faint partial halo seen more clearly in difference imagery. The source is a filament eruption from the region NE of AR13216, there is also subsequent brightening, potential flaring from AR13216 during this eruption. From Tarik Salman, LASSOS team: Arrival is marked by the enhancement of the B field over the background, accompanied by a drop in proton density and the start of a low-density period. Temperature data seems to be sensitive. A significant data gap makes it difficult to analyze the nature of field rotations. However, the rotations might not be significant due to a possible flank crossing. Due to that, at L1, the flux rope is possibly not encountered.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-02-13T17:02Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.33

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-02-13T02:32Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-02-11 12:58
 - Time at C2: 2023-02-11 11:12
 - Radial speed: 1888.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 34 deg
 - Eruption location: N30E15
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 972.40 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2023-02-13 02:32 (i.e. predicted transit time: 39.33 hours)
Lead Time: 45.03 hour(s)
Difference: 14.50 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2023-02-11T20:00Z
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